Amidst Disinformation and Geopolitical Rivalry, Bulgaria Returns to the Polls July 11th

In the opinion surveys leading up to the elections, the same three biggest parties as in April enjoy support somewhere between 16 and 23 percent each, with another three-four trailing far behind and one hovering just at the 4 percent threshold. Few observers believe that the outcome will differ much from that produced on April 4th, which distributed 240 parliamentary seats among six parties.

Ostensibly, the main problem in current Bulgarian politics arises from the unnecessarily sharp disagreements and mutual recriminations among the leaderships of the three main parties competing for power, aggravated during electoral campaigns. When the results were in, each of the three parties decided to reject cooperation with the other two and thereby precluded the establishment of a government tolerated by the parliamentary majority.

The two top contenders are Boyko Borisov’s center-right GERB party, which has ruled the country almost uninterruptedly since it garnered 40 per cent of the popular vote in mid-2009, and There Is Such a People (Ima takav narod or ITN), run by TV personality Slavi Trifonov. The electoral campaigns ahead of either poll have largely revolved around Trifonov’s sweeping accusations of corruption directed at Borisov and his party, with the ongoing pandemic and the country’s weak economic performance featuring as issues more in the periphery.

The corruption charges were also directed at the third frontrunner, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) with roots in the old communist elite. After Trifonov’s ITN party had reiterated that it would under no circumstances work with the BSP, two of the smaller parties with anti-corruption platforms similarly refused even initial consultations. From that point on the BSP was out of options as well.

At a deeper level Bulgaria’s troubles stem from being a relatively small country with the lowest GDP per capita in the European Union (EU), frequently exposed to cross-pressures from Brussels, Moscow, Ankara, Washington DC and Berlin. This especially applies to the energy sector, where the country’s geographic location in the corner of southeastern Europe makes it a significant player. While the EU and NATO have repeatedly urged Sofia to align with collective approaches designed to reduce the continent’s reliance on individual providers, Russian energy corporations have skillfully utilized regional relationships and ties to Bulgaria’s political class to assertively negotiate terms that above all are favorable to Moscow. Germany, a sponsor of the Nord Stream I-II pipelines, has not been in a position to object.

Bulgaria’s media landscape also appears to be the testing ground for some of Russia’s influence and disinformation campaigns, subsequently unleashed in Europe and other parts of the world. The reason why Bulgaria is fertile ground is due to some 150 years of often close cultural ties as well as the lingering nostalgia among part for the population for the stability of living conditions under communism. In recent years online information dissemination has increasingly been dominated by ad-sponsored ‘news sites’ where disinformation and propaganda, mostly with a pro-Russia tinge, is rife.

In this media environment it is not surprising that vaccine hesitancy in Bulgaria is the highest in the EU, with serious consequences for the battle against Covid-19. In mid-June the deputy health Minister, Toma Tomov, predicted that Bulgaria was highly likely to experience a fourth wave of cases and hospitalizations in the coming fall, as demand for jabs has been dropping instead of rising. So far Bulgaria has experienced one of the highest per capita death rates in Europe, above 18,000 with a population of approximately 8 million.

Other severe challenges, such as the weak performance of the legal system, are primarily domestic in origin. Although there are links to organized crime groups in other countries, the business landscape has remained opaque and inhospitable to vibrant competition in a variety of sectors. The 10 per cent flat tax notwithstanding, Bulgaria scored merely 61st place in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business ranking in 2019.

As things stand the best-case scenario for the 11 July parliamentary elections is that they will bring about improved prerequisites for the formation of a government that will be able to promote Bulgaria’s economic potential and strengthen its tax base in order to attend to socially vulnerable groups and the ailing health and education sectors, as well as to reinvigorate business opportunities for small and medium-sized companies. Unlike in the previous generation, there are today hundreds of thousands of young professionals who prefer to stay at home rather than to seek a career outside the country.

But, unfortunately, a more realistic scenario is that the 11 July polls will yield an outcome very much in line with the April elections, and thus another political impasse. With the electorate disillusioned with their political leaders, it may be the democratic institutions themselves that will be in jeopardy. After thirty years of slow but tangible progress in a number of areas by virtue of a competitive political system, a free press and a market-oriented society, it would be extremely sad to see substantive democratic backsliding in yet another post-communist EU member state.

The views expressed here represent the author’s own.