Nicaragua and the Dynamics of a Revolution

Since April 18, 2018, Nicaragua has been stricken by civil unrest initially triggered by the government’s lack of response to wildfires in an environmentally protected reserve. Compounding matters, the government introduced unilateral reforms, which were subsequently withdrawn, to the country’s social security system that would have increased contributions and lowered benefits. Unaccustomed to protests, the government, headed by authoritarian President Daniel Ortega, reacted violently. What began as a relatively small and peaceful protest by university students, was met with brutal force by the police and paramilitary groups using live ammunition fired at civilians. To date, the total body count numbers in the hundreds, with over a thousand injured and hundreds arbitrarily imprisoned. Undaunted, thousands of Nicaraguans have maintained daily protests, demanding the end of the government’s violent attacks. More importantly, their demands have now expanded to also include a complete overhaul of the country’s governmental institutions as they are widely seen as having been manipulated by President Ortega. Undemocratic reforms such as re-writing of the Constitution to allow for his third term in office, the elimination of term limits, and allowing his wife as his Vice-President are core to the protestors’ concerns, which escalated from modest protests around wildfires and changes to social security. These pent up grievances have the protesters demanding the resignation of Ortega and his wife, Rosario Murillo, in power for over 11 years, to be followed by early elections.

Before the outset of the protests, Nicaragua stood out as one of the safest and stable countries in the region. This small Central American country of six million has been posting above the average economic growth levels among Latin American and Caribbean countries. Fueled by sound macroeconomic policies combined with steady expansion of exports and increased foreign direct investment, Nicaragua hit record growth of 5.1 percent in 2011, slowing to 4.5 percent in 2017.

While the crisis continues unabated, it is important to recognize that political conflicts like the one affecting Nicaragua typically undergo the following order: rupture of the status quo, intensification of violence and conflict, general fatigue from the ongoing violence, finally culminating in a change of regime. While a political change in Nicaragua is inevitable given the magnitude of the crisis, the key question is timeline. Nicaragua’s political situation requires a complete renewal of its democratic institutions, including the legislature, the judicial branch, the Supreme Electoral Council, the independence of the Central Bank, the Police, and the Army. Such a restoration must involve a free and fair democratic election of new authorities within a constitutional framework.

There are at least three factors that define the pace of such broad-based political change: (1) a united common approach within each of the opposing factions; (2) the pressure each can exert; and (3) the resilience and unity of each side in response to this pressure. To date, neither Ortega, nor the groups at the dialogue table facilitated by the country’s Catholic Church have developed and implemented a concrete common approach to generate a common language, a shared agenda in order to confront the ruling party.

Search for Unity

There is a lack of consensus among opposition forces regarding expected outcomes. This is not surprising, as there are a variety of participants involved including business executives grouped in the Supreme Council of Private Enterprise and the American Chamber of Commerce, the Catholic Church, university students, farmers, civil society, and intellectuals. These diverse groups share the wish to remove Ortega, but do not necessarily agree on the methods and the timing. The private sector has assumed a more moderate stance, seeking the regime’s end in a gradual, tiered fashion, ensuring a stable transition of power. On the other hand, university students, civil society and rural leaders by and large want an immediate resignation of the presidential couple.

Pressure Tactics

Another key factor is the effectiveness of the pressure tactics available to each side. For Ortega, the repressive methods have constituted his only means of exerting pressure to maintain the status quo. The regime’s less violent operating tactics – delaying, sowing division, political blackmail, and the abuse of the law itself – no longer have the same effectiveness in eliminating public opposition in the current political context. As such, Ortega’s repressive apparatus is the only tool in his hand, with the police and paramilitary forces continuing to wreak havoc and deaths. The international community, including the United States (US), has recently announced placing sanctions on high-ranking officials in Ortega’s government, while the European Union, Organization of American States and the United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner have condemn the government’s killing of civilians and called for the government to immediately cease state violence and the dismantling of paramilitary forces attacking civilians. Meanwhile, the opposition can call upon greater means of pressure. Presently, protests and roadblocks are constantly in the public eye. This pressure is ubiquitous, impacting the government in a way that has weakened its legal and institutional actions. They also hold other cards for pressuring the state, including national labour strikes to paralyze the country, though such a move will inevitably be devastating to the country’s already battered economy.

Resilience to Withstand Pressure

It is important to note that Ortega has a long history of withstanding pressure in critical situations, having been a guerilla leader in the 1970s that toppled the previous Somoza regime, and taking power during Nicaragua’s civil war in the 1980s when he aligned his government with the now extinct Soviet Union against an insurgency financed by the US government. This time, however, Ortega is running out of steam, evidenced by the escalation of his strategy from intimidation to the use of vicious paramilitary forces.

The country has entered the second stage of the conflict, a stage where each side measures its forces. Faced with Ortega’s refusal to end his regime’s violent repression, the opposition is tipping the balance of power in its favour. If the situation continues, Ortega’s commercial allies within his political movement will likely begin to remove their support from Ortega, out of fear of continuing losing profits caused by the political unrest.

A Way Forward

Political change in Nicaragua is inevitable. The Ortega government has lost national and international legitimacy and the challenge now is how to transition to a new government. Tragically, it is highly likely that more unarmed civilians exercising their rights to peaceful protests will be killed by their own government. Unarmed civilians will continue to face the difficult choice of being slaughtered unarmed, or fighting back.

While it is reasonable that protesters may want to arm themselves, this option is not likely the best way forward in achieving their goal. First, the opposition would need to find the necessary financial means to acquire significant amount of weapons to mount a guerilla insurgency. Second, by arming themselves, the opposition would play into Ortega’s hand who would then claim that his government is simply defending itself from an armed insurgency wanting to topple his democratically-elected government.

A more realistic strategy is for the opposition to demand that an internationally-observed referendum be held so that all Nicaraguans have the opportunity to vote in favour or against Ortega continuing in power.

By demanding a referendum– as was the case in Chile’s Pinochet regime in the 1990s – the opposition would be calling for a mechanism already enshrined in Nicaragua’s Constitution, and as such, a legal and viable instrument. It could be followed by the formation of a provisional government, overhaul of judicial and electoral powers, and immediately followed by a general election. However, the problem is not whether there are legal mechanisms to recall Ortega from office, but rather the fact that Ortega refuses to accept any proposal that implies he releases power. Accordingly, the only way for the opposition to force the Ortega government to the negotiating table and accept an orderly and constitutional exit is for the opposition to maintain and intensify the pressure internally by peacefully holding national protests across the country, and internationally by seeking support to not only condemn the human rights violations perpetrated by the government, but also by applying targeted sanctions on Ortega’s inner circle.

Over the past month, the opposition has started to develop a clear agreement on a path forward, with one agenda and a language that reflects the desired outcome of their unity. Coupled with the intensification of internal and international pressure, it is likely that the Ortega government will have no choice but to accept the people’s will to relinquish power.