A Miscalculated Political Maneuver? The Release of Venezuela’s Opposition Leader Leopoldo López and the Deepened Political Crisis

One of the most prominent Venezuelan opposition leaders, Leopoldo López, was recently released from prison by the Venezuelan government and given house arrest after spending almost four years in prison out of a 14 year jail sentence. Accused by the government of being a dangerous “radical counterrevolutionary” who “incited violence”, López is hailed by the democratic opposition as an uncompromising defender of democratic rights enshrined in the Venezuelan constitution. Contrary to the government’s official position, however, his imprisonment has been widely described as politically motivated by numerous international human rights organizations. In fact, López’s defence team (who were not granted access to López while in prison nor allowed to call any witnesses to his defence) has over the years included several ex-Latin American presidents and Spanish prime ministers (both right and left-winged), a former Canadian member of parliament and human rights expert, as well as Vatican officials mediating for his release. In addition, the Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), Luis Almagro – a Socialist Democrat and ideologically align with the left-wing government in Venezuela – has in numerous occasions condemned the Venezuelan government and called for the release of all political prisoners, including Leopoldo López.

To better understand López’s sudden release, it is important to understand the political and humanitarian climate under which his partial freedom has been granted. Admittedly, his release is set against a backdrop of several months of continuous street protests against severe shortages of food and medicine, the killing of numerous protesters, and serious human rights and constitutional abuse.

The official explanation for the release of López, as stated by President Nicolás Maduro, is that the Supreme Court granted him the benefit of house arrest for humanitarian reasons. This explanation, however, is disputed by Lopez himself, who from the rooftop of his house briefly greeted his supporters and once again called for the continued peaceful protests against the government. A more credible explanation for his release, is the ongoing internal pressure the government has been under, forcing it to make a political calculation to minimize these ongoing internal pressures. Internationally, the Venezuelan government has been adept in successfully thwarting any attempt by the OAS to regionally isolate it by passing any resolution condemning its political and humanitarian crisis. It has been able to do so by strategically subsidizing oil shipments to several Caribbean countries in exchange for their vote at the OAS. It is internal pressure, however, that has proven to be a persistent thorn on the Venezuelan government’s side, one that it has not been able to eliminate.

In releasing López and placing him under house arrest, the government, who until now has shown no sign of giving in to popular pressure, can be seen as changing tactics as a means of undermining the opposition’s ability to command popular support in their daily street protests and buy itself some breathing space. To the government’s dismay, however, López’s release has seen a reinvigorated opposition able to draw thousands of protesters to the streets. What is more, not only is the pressure coming from the streets, but also from inside the government itself. The government’s chief prosecutor, Luisa Ortega Díaz (appointed by the late Hugo Chávez), has had a high-profile break with the government after she accused security forces of excessive violence; holding them responsible for the deaths of several protestors. In addition, she has openly stated that President Maduro’s plan to hold a citizens assembly to rewrite the constitution – and thereby bypassing the opposition-held National Assembly legislature – is illegal and threatens democracy. In the same vein, a top military general, Alexis López Ramírez, recently resigned over the legality of President’s Maduro plan to bypass the democratically-elected National Assembly. In both cases, this rare internal criticism of the government has been dismissed as treason, and in the case of Ortega Díaz, resulting in judicial prosecution.

With López’s release, the regime was strategically counting on deflating the opposition’s popular support. However, the government should have recognized that such maneuver was doomed to fail, as it does not fundamentally address the deep political and humanitarian crisis. In fact, buoyed by the increase popular support, the opposition-led National Assembly legislature held a plebiscite on July 16, 2017, with well over seven million Venezuelans casting ballots on President’s Maduro call for a super-legislative body to re-write the current constitution. The plebiscite’s results show over 90 percent of voters oppose President Maduro’s call to re-write the constitution, as it is seen as a government attempt to entrench its power and deflect from the current crisis. The plebiscite also asked if voters saw a need for the “renewal of public powers”, a free and transparent elections, (which President Maduro has postponed) and the formation of a “national unity government to restore the constitutional order”.

While not officially sanctioned nor recognized by the Venezuelan government, the overwhelming public support for the referendum cannot be ignored by the government as it has strengthened the opposition and further deepened the political crisis. Opposition lawmakers are now interpreting the plebiscite results as a trigger to form a parallel government given that President Maduro has postponed elections indefinitely. To this end, the opposition-led Assembly took its first steps to defy President’s Maduro’s government by recently appointing 33 justices to the Venezuelan Supreme Court, in open opposition to the current justices appointed several years ago by President Maduro.

Undoubtedly, the results of the plebiscite has emboldened opposition forces to continue opposing President Maduro’s government and seek new ways to be recognized as the official democratic leaders with the aim of sidelining Maduro’s government. The government on the other hand, remains steadfastly opposed to holding elections as constitutionally stipulated and will hold its constituent assembly to re-write the constitution without first holding a national referendum.

With the release of Leopoldo López, the government miscalculated that it would assuage the deep popular political and humanitarian discontent without first addressing the deep political schism. With both the government and opposition forces entrenched, the severe political and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela will only deepen to new lows.