North Korea: The Agitator of East Asia?

In recent news, North Korea has been the hot button issue with governments and bureaucrats alike. The geopolitical nature of the country leaves many world leaders apprehensive as to what will happen next. Recent missile tests conducted by Pyongyang as well as brazen rhetoric spouted by Kim Jong Un towards neighboring countries poses a threat as to what actions North Korea will take moving forward. While it’s interesting to note the movements of the country in question, the reaction of the other nations in the region have the potential to shift the geopolitical balance of power. So the questions remain the same; is North Korea an aggressive force that has the resources and capability to fracture East Asian relations? Or can countries use these events to craft a new reality to preserve the sanctity of their respective states?

The North Korean Undertaking

The recent moves of North Korea have alarmed surrounding nations in the region. Through the implementation of nuclear programs, Pyongyang has conducted a series of missile tests that have come close to allied shores. Political scientists theorize that these tests are a part of the overall research conducted by the North Korean government, seeking to develop ballistic missile capability to strike key cities as far as the United States. This idea is problematic as such actions create security issues in East Asia as well as other parts of the world. Having a country operating outside the confines of international law poses a threat to the global community as a whole. Hence the focus on North Korean actions, as well as the push for strengthening bilateral relations between allied powers. Blowback from the Pyongyang offensive caused several events to happen in the region that has the propensity to alter the course of history.

From the Japanese point of view, the geopolitical situation of North Korea is a double-edged sword. On one end, the brashness of the Kim Jong administration is a threat to national security. At the same time, this gives Japan an opportunity to pass legislation that seeks to reform the constitution. The Abe administration aspires to be the group that changes the direction of Japanese internal politics by restoring the country to its “former glory.” Despite some of the recent controversies emerging from the current government, the unforeseen actions of Pyongyang could be the catalyst that drives the Japanese Diet to reexamine constitutional clauses.

South Korea and its Allies

The issues in South Korea are even more daunting. With the recent impeachment of the President Park Geun-hye, the country is encountering some significant hardships that leave much of its borders at risk. Even with the election of new President Moon Jae-in, the recent missile tests of North Korea, plus the long-standing conflict between the two nations, leaves Seoul in a position of vulnerability. Especially after the current administration seeks a more “open” approach with their neighbors to the north. Whether this is an opportunity for diplomatic reconciliation or is a mask to stall any drastic geopolitical moves remains to be seen. What’s most interesting here are the actions of both countries, and how they shape the regional climate of East Asia.

Recently, North Korea showed its displeasure with Seoul, as the government implemented initiatives to bolster and create the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) missile system. Partnering with the United States, this network of weaponry is designed to intercept any warheads launched by North Korea should there be any sinister overtones. Naturally, Kim Jong Un and his administration have expressed their disdain with such a system in place, straining the already questionable relations between Pyongyang and Washington. Still, Trump seemingly seeks to have an audience with Kim Jong Un, which could potentially calm much of the heated rhetoric spouted at one another the past few months. Nevertheless, South Korea is in the center of such events, as the internal state of the country must be attended to first before it could move on to tackle the foreign policy complications of the region.

On China

The relationship between North Korea and China is especially one to watch. With the current amount of attention placed on the Pyongyang government, it seemed as if China could get away with actions that would cause neighboring countries and its allies to ask tougher questions. For years, China has used North Korea as a sort of uninhibited agitator, supporting with foreign policy as well as help the country with internal issues. At the same time, it remains as a surprise when North Korea recently came out and criticized China in a rather unpredictable fashion. This event happened due to allegations of both American and Chinese bureaucrats discussing the significance of sanctions on North Korean missiles tests during UN briefings. In turn, the actions of North Korea undermine the work of China in the region. In an unlikely turn of events, the once (and arguably only) defender of North Korean dealings is faced to deal with the sting of unpredictability. Whether these statements by North Korean administrators are not much more than political rhetoric is subject to time and chance.

The actions of North Korea put China in an uncompromising position, as the THAAD missile defense system deployed in South Korea undermines the power grab Beijing is looking to obtain. In recent months, China espoused harsh criticism of the joint military initiative between South Korea and the United States. As a result, boycotts of South Korean products started in China, as well as urging its citizens not to travel to Seoul. This situation affects the South Korean economy, as the country is projected to lose billions of dollars in tourist revenue. While China takes it frustration out on South Korea, the ultimate concern is that the U.S. is using the implementation of the weapons system as a scapegoat to maintain a stronger presence in East Asia. Other political theorists argue that the source criticism is partly because of the recent actions going on in the South China Sea. The THAAD missile system, while originally designed to defend South Korea, has radar capability that can monitor activities in the region. China, looking to swing the balance of power in its favor, doesn’t want outside forces keeping a watchful eye on their operations. Ironically, much of this situation traces back to the actions of North Korea. By indirectly supporting Pyongyang to bludgeon the region with threats and weapons testing, China potentially sabotaged their ability to make geopolitical moves. With the THAAD initiative in place, U.S. Intelligence sources have more influence in the region, which is not what Beijing wants. The North Korean issue inflames the entire section of East Asia, making it difficult for neighboring countries to establish stable geopolitical frameworks.

Overall, the actions of the Kim Jong Un government have many countries keeping a watchful eye on its whereabouts. South Korea seeks to work with their northern neighbors, despite cozying up with the United States to activate the THAAD system. Japan sees this as an opportunity to reform the legislative doctrines while maintaining the assumption that historical blemishes won’t resurface. China, while originally on good terms with North Korea, may have to reexamine their relationship, as the country undercuts much of their objectives in East Asia. What’s certain is that North Korea has indeed influenced the actions of their neighboring states. Whether this is a part of the plan or more than what the country has bargained for remains uncertain. However, if Pyongyang continues to shake up the region, it will find itself in an ever more isolated position with atrophied relations. With the collective unit of Japan, South Korea, and the United States looking out for their personal interests, such threats coming from North Korea will lessen, losing its gripping influence on the region and the world. From that point, the catalyst of change will end up stunting its growth, collapsing under the pressure of its antagonism. If North Korea wishes to shake the very core of geopolitical relations in East Asia, it must be ready for any and all consequences.

The views expressed here represent the author’s own.