Make Japan Great Again? The Rise of Trump and Significance of the US-Japan Alliance

Japan is in a unique position. With the rise of Trump and the changing of the American political landscape, the world faces a new challenge. That challenge is uncertainty. If you’re from a realist background, that raises concern. The shifting of the global narrative is one to look out for, as countries across Europe and the Western world are shifting away from the “liberal world order” and more into an ideologist that puts the concerns of the host over that of the guest. With Brexit and “#AmericaFirst” rhetoric gaining momentum, what is the fate of East Asia? One thing is sure: this is a unique time as ever for Japan to stand on its own two feet.

With the current state of East Asia, Japan is in an interesting geopolitical position. Despite the media reporting on recent mischief associated with President Abe’s visit to America, the relations between both nations will retain its diplomatic resolve. Still, some new factors need consideration.

Although the alliance between Washington and Tokyo remains auspicious, some moves made by the Trump administration had Japanese bureaucrats perplexed. Such action was the adamant repeal of the TPP, which Japan and other nations in the area supported. This move by the U.S. was not in the interest of Japan, looking to maximize their free trade imperatives. Instead, Tokyo disappointingly started to shift their focus towards the RCEP, a trade statute with nations in the region – including China.

Also, Trump had a few discernments on Twitter with members of the Japanese private sector. In early January, the President criticized Toyota for building manufacturing plants in Mexico for selling vehicles to American consumers. With his “America First” overtones, Trump seeks to ensure that the U.S. receives most of the economic benefit from trade agreements, threatening the imposition of border tariffs on foreign goods. This strategy is not received well in international circles focused on free trade, even within allied powers. If these economic issues are to continue, dialogues need to take place to ensure everyone is on the same page.

From a defense standpoint, both the U.S. and Japan seek to strengthen their influence in East Asia. However, there are new terms and conditions that Japan must meet to keep up on their end of the bargain. Trump has said it before: he wants Japan to take more responsibility in security measures in East Asia. This idea goes in line with President Abe’s position on constitutional reformation seeking to reexamine Japan’s past to carve out a new future. For many ideologues, this may sound alarm bells, as these facts slope down into thinking there’s resurgence in imperialism. However, such thinking doesn’t make much sense in our current age due to several factors at large:

• The proverbial end of massive conflict between states, with a focus on counterinsurgency
• The rise of institutionalism in the form of world organizations
• Symbiotic relationships between countries through diplomatic and economic means
• The “interconnectedness” of nations due to technological advancement

The risk of full-scale international conflict in the “traditional sense” is slim, so saying that Japan will reignite militaristic imperatives with a thirst for empire building is a little short sighted. States that abide by the credo of international institutions should have the right to defend its borders in a justifiable way. Japan is no exception to this rule, as the turbulence of East Asia is afoot.

Concerns of Japan

With the current geopolitical climate of East Asia, Japan has many variables to consider. The actions of China and the escapades involving the creation of artificial islands in the South China Sea, as well as the controversies involving the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands leads Tokyo to showcase a bit of concern as to how relations will turn out in the region. As the aggression of China is a testament to their recent rise in economic and militaristic affairs, President Donald Trump and President Abe will have to establish a clear-cut policy on how to maintain a level of solidarity in the region. As long as the relationship between both nations remains in a state of interdependence, the balance of power in East Asia is assured. At the same time, opening up more dialogues with China to discuss these plans can help remove the ambiguity that obfuscates the real intentions of global power players.

The Korean Gambit

The North Korean security situation also presents a level of apprehension in not just East Asia alone, but in the global community. The recent missile testing by Pyongyang has both Washington and Tokyo watching what transpires in the country. The tests are seen as outside threats by North Korea, as the Japanese government has fundamentally disagreed on conducting such actions near their border. Hence, the push for strengthening the bond between the United States and Japan must be at the forefront. Whether this means that there will be a progressive increase in military imperatives remains to be seen, but it is without reservation that the allied powers continuously monitor the unpredictability of North Korea.

This course of action is where the U.S. can diplomatically anchor to South Korea to work (a least temporarily) with Japan. As North Korean missiles have the ability to strike both South Korea and Japan, the threat affects both countries. Despite historical conflicts and issues regarding domestic policy actions, both nations recognize the brazen acts of North Korea and can use the reality of the current situation to table any disputes among each other. Being an outside third-party, the United States. can steer talks into that direction.

Making Japan Great Again?

Despite the uncertainty of the region, Trump has stated that it is imperative that Japan learns to operate more independently and take a greater role in East Asia. Outside of a few statements during the campaign trail, we still aren’t completely keen on what these significances are. In turn, this can be a chance for Japan to change some aspects of itself and reform into a country that is ready to face the challenges of the current era without being viewed through the lens of the past. Neighboring states are watching the island country, too see what will transpire from the political shock of its American ally. If relations in the region find more continuity in working within an international framework, the developmental fear of a power vacuum can be mitigated. Thus, it is the responsibility of all states involved to look towards building a future that works towards understanding and growth.

Fuad Olajuwon is an independent contributor to the Foreign Policy Project, who focuses on Japan and East Asian affairs. He tweets @FuadOlajuwon and the opinions expressed here are his own.